Jagan may attempt coup with BJP help

Y S Jaganmohan Reddy has quit the Congress and the Lok Sabha, and could make it that much more difficult for new chief minister Kiran Kumar Reddy to settle in. If Jagan joins hands with rich friends in the BJP, he could pull off some stunning surprises.

Jagan had been facing considerable hostility in the party since the death of his father Y S Rajashekhar Reddy in 2009. The 38-year-old Jagan is a first time MP, and has been eyeing his father’s position, but the party high command chose the more experienced K Rosaiah to lead the state. Upset ever since, Jagan was increasingly seen as a rebel within the Congress. Many in the party felt Jagan was in too much of a hurry to become chief minister, and just last week, Sonia Gandhi chose Kiran Kumar Reddy to take over as chief minister from Rosaiah, who cited health reasons and resigned.

Jagan’s father YSR had never lost an election in 30 years, and had built up a strong base for himself and his party. Wikipedia reports 714 people died, either of shock or by committing suicide, after YSR’s death in a helicopter crash in September 2009. That is perhaps exaggerated, and the Deccan Chronicle puts the number at 141. While the numbers can be disputed, it can’t be denied that YSR had a mass base, which Jagan thinks he has inherited. Thousands continue to gather wherever Jagan travels, and that is why the Congress, and new chief minister Kiran Kumar Reddy, were treading carefully when it came to dealing with his faction.

Late last week, the Congress announced a cabinet berth for Vivekananda Reddy, Jagan’s uncle and YSR’s brother. The party hopes many in Jagan’s camp will now shift their loyalty to the new chief minister. Sakshi, the TV channel owned by Jagan’s family, criticised Sonia Gandhi last week, and offered an opportunity for rival Congress leaders to demand action against him.

Some analysts believe the Congress has shot itself in the foot by forcing Jagan to quit. The Mint reported:

(Political analyst) C. Narasimha Rao said the strategy may backfire for the Congress party. “All said and done, Jagan is the only Congress leader in the state who enjoys sizeable popularity and public following. Instead of gaining back the public now rallying behind Jagan, Congress leadership is resorting to short-cut methods,” Rao said. “Congress leadership may be temporarily successful in its strategy. But once the new cabinet of Kiran Kumar Reddy is announced, there will be dissidence and many of the disappointed lawmakers may start rallying behind Jagan once again.”

Reports indicate Jagan may float a new party. Chiranjeevi, the Telugu movie superstar, floated a party in 2008. He has met with marginal success, winning just 18 seats in the 295-member Andhra Pradesh assembly. But what worries the Congress is that Jagan has both money and muscle, and represents a politically powerful caste. The money comes from powerful business interests from within his caste, and the caste support cuts across party affiliations. (The new chief minister Kiran Kumar Reddy also belongs to the same caste, and the Congress hopes his nomination will help checkmate Jagan).

Jagan’s father had close ties with the Reddys in Bellary, and when he died, he was in the process of starting a huge steel plant in Kadapa. Bellary is in neighbouring Karanataka, and the Reddy brothers belong to the rival BJP. Children of a police constable, they have acquired enough wealth to be able to control the Karnataka government and manipulate its composition.

Open magazine reports:

Recently, when the Reddy brothers and Jagan together floated Brahmani Steel, a Rs 30,000 crore project in Kadapa, they forged more than just a business partnership. “We are aware they will use the money and influence of the Reddy community in AP. We are ready to face it,” admits a senior Congress leader from AP who does not want to be named.

The magazine also indicates that Jagan may take help from BJP leaders from across the border, and pull off a coup. That is not going to be easy, given that the Telangana movement for a separate state has its own leaders waiting for an opportunity to grab power, but Kiran Kumar Reddy is definitely going to face difficult challengers in the wake of Jagan’s resignation.